Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
I'm sure there are better metrics in the pipeline to really separate these things out, but as it stands you're not quite correct above.
If the goalie is set, and there isn't a pass, deflection or tip it's not a high danger chance, it's merely a "scoring chance"
The Flames (5 on 5) are ranked 5th in the league in "scoring chances" (any shot of any kind from the home plate area), and they're ranked 4th in terms of high danger chances (home plate on a tip, rebound or pass).
Their high danger shooting percentage however is 23rd.
I don't think they have the horses.
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If you're 4th in HD chances, and 23rd in goals, there are 3 potential issues:
1) bad luck
2) bad shooters
3) your HD chances aren't as high quality
No doubt #1 is a factor, but I doubt it explains the whole thing (or we'll see the floodgates open at some point). I don't buy #2, because that would have shown up before this year.
That leaves #3, which is what I believe the problem is. The Flames are working the offensive zone from the outside - forecheck, move it around the outside, and then try and get a pass into the middle. They are creating a lot of those plays, but they aren't dangerous because the forward is covered (the D is set).
5on5 chances, when the D is set, are usually not dangerous. High danger chances off the rush are way more dangerous