It's mostly the Leafs and potentially to some extent the Senators. There aren't a lot of non-expats who are crossing the border to go and support a new franchise in Ontario.
But yeah, the big hurdle is MLSE wanting to maintain a monopoly over southern Ontario NHL hockey. An expansion there would cost them millions upon millions not only in terms of revenue but even future franchise value. If it costs 650 million to expand to Seattle, it'd probably cost almost twice that in the GTA.
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