Quote:
Originally Posted by Joborule
I think your two paragraphs contradict each other in non-traditional markets being successful. If that was truly the case, then hockey shouldn't be working in California either. But as you mentioned about Tampa Bay, if a franchise can be successful, it will generate support. And although Phoenix has largely been irrelevant for their entire history, it has produced an elite level hockey player.
But it definitely is a very uphill battle, and if you don't have a period of being a competitive team, you're SOL in being able to stay.
It just feels like at this point that Phoenix is just not going to work out, and it'll be moving to either Houston (they may like hockey more now because of their current weather) or Quebec City. After Seattle starts up, those two cities are next on the queue, with Kansas City being a wildcard I suppose.
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Your second paragraph is it for me... its not totally impossible to succeed in a sunbelt market but it's such a long shot that it is foolhardy. And do believe that there are some places where there's a combination of hockey being so foreign and the market just not being large enough that there's literally zero chance of sustained success.
I think many Californians were brought to the game by Gretzky in the 90s which was pretty exceptional plus the population is so large having more ppl than all of Canada. Couple those first two factors with the Kings and Ducks winning cups and I don't think Florida, Arizona or North Carolina (or almost any other sunbelt markets) will ever recreate those three conditions,
Dallas/Texas I do find really interesting though and challenges my thinking, because while they've never really bottomed out, they are a team I'd expect to be right there in that group of bad markets that eventually go belly up, but they've maintained attendance - maybe because of the cup they won, population size and/or the market having more transplants because of the economy. It sticks out to me as the one anomaly outside California.
Vegas and Nashville will also be interesting long term when they go through periods of being bad too and the honeymoon phase ends. Vegas you'd think comp tickets and vacationers will prop them up regardless but the Preds weren't super healthy attendance wise before they got good, you wonder what the next valley will look like.