Quote:
Originally Posted by Textcritic
That is actually pretty illuminating. So, should the team have traded down from #4? Maybe there is some merit in this.
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Only with the Captain Hindsight super powers in this case, but in general you might find really good value by trading down from a pick in the 4-10 range.
I found the deep dive I did. Forwards drafted 4OA since 1990 :
Paul Kariya
Nicklas Backstrom
Mitch Marner
Mike Ricci
Andrew Ladd
Evander Kane
Ryan Johansen
Stephen Weiss
Brady Tkachuk
Chad Kilger
Todd Warriner
Nikolai Zherdev
Benoit Pouliot
Sam Bennett
Jesse Puljujarvi
Jason Bonsignore
Alexandre Volchkov
Pavel Brendl
9 hits, 6 meh, 3 busts. It is worth noting that the 7 below average picks other than the italicized were all picked before 2005. The 'hit' rate has been a lot better since then...G Reinhart is the only certain bust since then (Thomas Hickey borderline).
D and G:
TLDR: it's reasonable to expect a top half of the roster player at 4OA, but probably not a franchise player (especially at C).