Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
I think advanced stats are going to evolve and get better.
But they're not useless as they stand right now.
They are counts of events. The formulas are based on history of results for these events.
It isn't perfect, but it's not flawed or useless as long as the conclusions and projections that come with them aren't stretched too far.
Teams that give up more shots from the slot will probably lose more often than not, but it's not a formula as players have different finishing skills, fortune, and are facing different goaltenders.
But that doesn't change the fact that a summary of events is interesting if team X out shot team Y by a big margin, but didn't get the same margin of events in the slot from passes, shots and deflections.
The Flames played a sit back game and were awful. The shot counts support that. The scoring chances (slot shots without a pass, deflection or rebound) were heavy in Vancouver's favour as well so they had their slot time. The margin was tighter in the high danger category which could mean Calgary was focusing on blocking those pass entry points to the slot, but as a result gave up the slot to the guy carrying the puck.
Those chances aren't as dangerous to a goaltender that stops what he sees from a set position, but they finally beat Markstrom when Myers shot hit a Flame in front of the net.
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Do you think there could ever be an advanced stat to measure effort output? I’m thinking like when you measure say the speed a player skates, for example, and you have a team average metric. You could measure a game against that average and see that if you have a team that typically outputs this average of speed in skating or distance covered, but in this game they are not type of thing.
Seemed like against the Canucks there was a lot of standing around, and no way to measure that other than the eyeball test. Which then gets disputed by people lazily arm waving away “well everyone does it”. Sure, I get that, but to what degree? It’d be interesting if we could measure that.