Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
Not sure I agree.
We keep hearing about proprietary models that can take goalie x and his save percentages by type, and plop him into team y and their propensity to give up a certain type of shot.
The math isn't that hard to run after you have those two sets.
So why not have that for defensemen?
"Chris Tanev is poor on the rush, and poor when stuck in his own zone for more than 65 seconds. His strengths are blocking out lanes, and taking away cross seam passes. Needs a partner to compliment that by also being strong positionally, and somewhat predictive"
Quinn Hugues and Noah Hanifin are very different. Calgary spends less time getting lit up than Vancouver did last year ... Vancouver was in the top five in many "against" categories, including shots and shot attempts. They spent a lot of time in their own zone.
So yeah I think you can have a model that would allow you to plop a certain player into a different situation.
If they don't ... it's coming.
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Goalie activity is much more isolated and separated.
A shot from the slot, every goalie is experiencing the same way.
Cross-crease pass, every goalie will experience the same thing.
Shot from the point, same thing.
It's like baseball - isolated, one on one events lend themselves perfectly to statistical analysis.
Hockey is 5 guys, constantly in motion, against 5 other guys, constantly in motion. That makes statistical analysis extremely challenging.