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Franchise Player
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The glass is 3/4 full
The past few weeks has given me time to ponder the situation of the team and take a larger look at things. Yes, we're all pissed off at the lack of performance to start the season, but what does this team really look like?
Forwards
Unlike some on this site, I see a very good mix of forwards. I see three fantastic pairs that should generate offense. Monahan-Gaudreau is proven and a keeper. Lindholm-Tkachuk looks really good as well. Backlund-Mangiapane has shown chemistry as well. The 4th line is completely misused by this team and has been for years, so I'm not counting them. More on that later. The top nine is actually setup quite well for success, the challenge is finding that complimentary player for each line.
Of the rest of the forwards I think the team has a couple good pieces. Dillon Dube is a keeper and gives some flexibility. He can play up and down the lineup and help out everywhere. I have opinions where I think he should play, but that will wait. Josh Leivo is a guy that I think fills a need quite well. I have liked his game since he arrived and I see some great things from him. Another guy that I have seen some really good things from in spots is Simon. I don't think he's being used right, but he looks like he can easily contribute.
Where the team fails is the number of players that just look useless. Nordstrom is barely passable, but at $700K, that's what you expect. He’s a decent penalty killer but lacks offensive skill.
Ryan is a utility player, but a guy that looks like time is catching up. His $3.125M salary is a mistake IMO. If they could cull this salary from the herd it might be beneficial.
Lucic is tough player to discuss. Yes, the toughness is important to have in the lineup, but to what extent. The guy really struggles to play at the NHL level anymore. It is as plain as the nose on his face. Yes, he will have a game here or there that makes you feel good, but for the most part he is a liability out there. Yes, he is better than James Neal, but that bar is so low that it should not be used as a measure. Treliving should be on short leash just on this move alone IMO as Lucic's horrible $5.25M contract is an anvil around the neck of this team in the deep end of the pool.
My views on Sam Bennett are well known, and I'll leave it at the team needs to move on from him and his $2.55M salary. He tends to neutralize anyone you play him with for long stretches. It was not an accident that Backlund’s line came to life and Monahan’s line disappeared for two full periods as a certain player was reassigned. Move on and look for someone that can contribute, preferably a right handed shot.
Asset management has been poor by Treliving, especially his budget and willingness to blow it on both end talent. When you put out the 4th line of Lucic-Ryan-Bennett you have an $11M 4th line. Treliving should be ashamed. It is really too bad that the money wasted on these players was not available to grab another forward this past off season. I argued long and hard for the addition of Tyler Toffoli, both at the deadline and during free agency, and at $4.25M he would have been an exceptional fit for this team. Managing the budget matters and having $11M of dead weight is a huge problem.
Defense
The defense is surprisingly good. I’ll be the first to admit that I thought the Tanev signing was a huge mistake and the money should have been used up front. In retrospect this was a shrewd signing. Tanev has been the Flames’ best defenseman this season and he and Hanifin have been outstanding.
Another signing that worked out great for Calgary is Nesterov. Really impressed by him and his utility. He and Valimaki make a decent pair, although the former has had his challenges. I think Valimaki could use the odd game off and allow Mackey or Kyllington a chance at some ice time here and there. Might give him some perspective and aid his maturation at this level.
Andersson has been everything we hoped he would be. Just strong in both ends, plays really smart and is a pain in the ass to the opposition. Thanks Sven Baertschi.
Giordano has really struggled since COVID interrupted the NHL. He’s a step or two behind and has made some poor decisions. He still displays the heart of a lion and is a great leader, but his ice time commitment should be trimmed back. Still a quality player, but maybe should be on the 2nd or 3rd pair and sheltered from the opposition’s best.
Still, when it is all said and done the blueline is the least of the Flames problems.
Goaltending
Nothing needs to be said here. Jacob Markstrom has been the team’s MVP by a mile. It is wonderful having a goaltender back there you have confidence in and don’t cover your eyes the second the puck enters the Flames’ zone. It will be great having him back there providing the tending this team needs.
Big Save Dave needs to get his head right. I believe he can provide the relief pitcher role on this team and make the Flames tandem one of the best in the NHL, but he has to be prepared to go in when called upon. I’m not sure if he needs some couch time with a sports shrink, but he needs something to kick him out of his funk. Maybe a few more hugs from Tkachuk will help his fragile confidence? Once he gets right the Flames are in a very good position in goal.
Coaches
The Achilles Heel of the Treliving era. I have no idea how a guy that can do so many thing right can’t pick a damn head coach. Geoff Ward is a minor league coach IMO. He does not play to the strengths of his players and does not give them a chance to succeed. This is a team that should play a high tempo transition game, where they are always push the puck forward. In his scheme of things their first move is always to push the puck backwards against the flow and try to regroup so they can attack as a five-man unit. All this does is allow the opposition to get back and setup defensively, eliminating the Flames advantage of having guys that attack best on the rush. They suck at dump and chase, and when you allow the defense to setup across the blueline you are stuck playing that game.
What is even more concerning is the line assignments Ward makes. The Flames will score to get some momentum and he’ll go and throw out his 4th line and let them get hemmed in their own zone, killing what momentum was there. His matchups are terrible and he rarely uses that last change to get guys out to take advantage of situations. It is really beyond me how he is not better at this considering some of the teams he’s worked for.
Ward’s line combinations really leave a lot to be desired. He just can’t look down his bench and figure out what to do with his complimentary players. The blender is not the solution and is more a sign of panic than a reasoned approach.
What is worst about Ward and his team is they never seem prepared for games. Poor starts is usually a sign of not being prepared or the team not motivated. This can happen from time-to-time, but the level of regularity where this happens is alarming. Yes, players have to self-motivate, but the coaching staff needs to help those players prepare by giving them as much information and positive imagery as possible. I think the staff fails in this regard in a massive way.
If there was one change I could make on this team it would be getting an experienced and proven coach. Yes, I would keep Sam Bennett on the first line if it meant bringing in a coach who has some history of winning under his belt. No more second-rate coaches, bring in a winner.
Management
Brad Trelving is very frustrating to think about. He has done some really good things in making a trade here and there, he’s got some great deals signed, and he’s let the scouts do their job, but he’s also made some real horrible moves. A lot of his free agent signings have been terrible. Markstrom and Tanev certain changed that conversation as this was Treliving’s soft under belly. When you consider the list of free agents under Treliving, it’s been ugly. It’s also handcuffed the team in many ways. I think Treliving is good GM, but not a great one. I think he is in search of perfection in some of his moves more so than moving the team forward in meaningful ways. That may be his greatest weakness.
I think Treliving is down to his last lifeline. He needs this team to get over the hump or he’s likely to be asked to fall on his sword. The funny thing is I think this team is one top six forward away from being there. One more guy to step up and fill that missing slot, and this team starts running over their division. I hope he can make the right move and find a guy that can fill that role. It does not have to be a perfect fit, just someone that can compliment the skill sets already there. If he doesn’t get that done, all the goodwill he’s earned will be out the door and so will be Treliving.
Minors
The AHL Flames are not pretty. For a team needing depth, there just isn’t any. The blueline depth is pretty well non-existent. The goaltending position is also a mess with Zagidulin being the last resort. The forwards are AHL fodder or bottom six players. The best are Gawdin and Phillips and I’m not sure there is a full time NHL player in either of them. Ruzicka is a tantalizing mix of size and skill, but I think his consistency challenges hurt him. They do have a couple of big bodies that might turn into role players. Tuuola and Pospisil might be able to handle limited 4th line duty in the future, but they need to be tested in the crucible to prove their metal. COVID has really hurt these guys and probably killed a few careers.
Prospect base
The Flames are thin in this area. The loss of all the draft picks that Treliving used to make deals for immediate help has hurt the prospect base. The Flames are lacking a true blue chip prospect that can be counted to step in and make an immediate difference. The prospect ranks feature some skill but players that are undersized by NHL standards. We have Pelletier and Zary to look forward to, then a lot of long shots. Yes, we have some guys that have really stepped up, like Pettersen, Zavgorodiny, and Wolf that give up some hope, but these guys were late picks (6th round and two 7th rounders) for reasons. The hope for internal help seems like a complete crapshoot, as the holes we have we don’t have prospects that can step up into those roles. The best hope is these guys push vets out of roles and the GM can turn those vets into other players that fill the gaps.
Bottom Line
I like the current state of the team with the exception of the coaching staff and a couple bodies. I seriously think we are one player away from being in the mix to walk over the division. I think we are two decent players away from challenging the best in the league. The glass really is ¾ full. All we need is a decent trade for a couple of guys that can play in the middle six, preferably right shots, and I think the world is our oyster (man Toffoli would have been an awesome fit). We are solid from the goaltender out. We are solid down the middle. No, we don’t have flashy guys like McDavid, but we have solid players that get the job done. We just need to solidify the pairs with the appropriate complimentary players and give them a bench boss that can use them properly, and this is a dangerous team. I believe in this team which is why I am so passionate about removing the pieces that are square pegs in the round holes. It is unfortunate that this should all come to pass during COVID as it would have been interesting to see the deals made with a tight cap. I think this is a go for it now moment as the lack of depth is the system will make for a painful rebuild when its all said and done.
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