[Senator Clay Davis]

I said it in the playoff thread that this is a very easy game to analyze because it's going to come down to can the Bucs D line do enough to take advantage of a battered KC OLine. But in general the problem for the Bucs is their best chance to win is to do the opposite of their offensive and defensive coaches nature. For defense the problem for the Bucs is what they do best, stop the run, is only going to encourage KC to do what they do best, which is pass. And when the Chiefs do get into obvious passing downs, Todd Bowles nature is to get aggressive with blitzes, but that as we know is suicide against Mahomes. So how do you encourage the other team to run and play safe when all you know is the opposite?

And on offense the Bucs need to play a more Patriots like game of dink and dunk and possession, which is the antithesis of who Bruce Arians is. I applaud his desire to go for big plays, but you don't need to take a deep shot on every third and short, sometimes 4 yards on 3rd and 3 is ok too. Can he dial it back and try to win a game more in the 24-21 range instead of the 38-35 range? Ultimately it's tough to imagine Arians playing a dialed back game, and as we've seen in the playoffs and in the regular season the amount of deep shots they take will inevitably lead to a couple of picks. Can Arians go against type?

And yet....all of that might be rendered irrelevant by Mahomes. Even in games where he hasn't played great, he's still played great when his team needs it. Last year the 49ers played 50 minutes of nearly perfect football, and still lost by two scores in the end. Ignore questions of where he ranks on the greatest chart, Mahomes offers the greatest margin of error any team has ever had because in 10 minutes he can produce 3 TDs with little effort. You have to be so perfect to beat them, and they can beat you with their B game because of Mahomes. And such a fine margin is often too much to overcome, and I suspect it will be the same tonight.