The latest FiveThirtyEight podcast is mostly about Bidens covid-response, but it starts with discussion on same recent polls that strongly suggest what I've been suspecting is true:
The Trumpists are at best half of the Republican party at this point, and more likely the split between Trumpists and more traditional conservatives is something like 60-40 in favour of Trump.
Unless the "Bush - conservatives" as 538 calls it pull some rabbit out of their hat, I think the next minority leaders are going to be more or less hard core Trumpists, and the more traditional conservatives are going to be pushed out of leadership positions. (To me it looks a lot like McConnell already lost the power struggle with Trump. The attack on Capitol changes nothing for the Republicans.)
(The podcast of course also points out that a large reason for this is that the difference between Trumpists and the old guard is mostly in rhetoric style rather than policy content.)
Worth listening to.
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