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Originally Posted by Thunderball
I mostly agree with you. It's absolutely true that the prior generations completely squandered wealth (including the federal governments who were all too happy to accept the higher tax revenues from Alberta taxpayers with no foresight or support). It's also true that this is the first generation that will absolutely do worse than their parents.
What I don't agree with is this one dimensional view that all political parties seem to have. You can diversify and be a strong advocate for oil and gas, which is why the NDP were idiots for not advocating for energy, and the UCP are idiots for pulling back the subsidies/programs for tech and other industries that the NDP actually did right.
As an aside, my family made their money in O&G, and like you, I also saw the writing on the wall that the money just wouldn't be the same to sustain my career. One could say the same about law though. The money is still very good, but not even close to what firms were doing in the 1980s. We also don't have a massive gain on our principal residences to look forward to help fund our retirement and harvest tax free like the prior generations.
Biden is a jerk for what he did and despite the lipstick on the pig approach our government is taking, he is not a friend to Canada, he's as self interested as Trump, but in a smoother and more likable package. That said, he's very much a political creature, and you don't blame someone for acting in their nature when you should know better. You don't last nearly 50 years in politics if you aren't. I don't blame him, he has no obligation to us other than loyalty to an ally and honouring free trade, but that is barely worth the paper it is printed on nowadays. I blame the Liberals, and I also blame both Notley and Kenney (and Redford and Stelmach) for all being one dimensional rubes.
Canada has made two fatal mistakes in my view:
First, we made ourselves dependent on the Americans one too many times, and they know it. Why do us favours when they have a nice little reserve supply that they can "help us tap" if they need it, while winning support by vilifying it in the short term. Energy East was essential to confederation, whether the east sees it or not. Without it, we're simply too dependent on others.
Second, Canadians lack the killer instinct the rest of the world has. We're like the middle child of a rich parent. We assume we're going to be taken care of because we're agreeable and because we have only known wealth in our lives. There is no doubt that fossil fuels will be phased out. It might be 10 years, it might be 100 years. Every single other producing nation is going to be trying to squeeze every last penny out of this, from the US, to Norway to Saudi and everyone in between. They also smell weakness, so they pick on Canada to camouflage their own efforts. Meanwhile, we are being "good citizens of the world" and refusing to support an income stream necessary to help us pay for the oncoming demographic nightmare when the baby boomers retire and die out with insufficient wealth to support their retirement. We also lack the motivation to fix what is now an insurmountable task to build projects. The quest for consensus and reconciliation means a lot of people's livelihoods (including FNs) are at risk now, and it didn't have to be this way.
It's going to be a tough decade, that's for sure. We have a lot of desperate and hopeless people in this province, and likely soon, this country.
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Canada is viewed quite highly where I live, also from an economic standpoint Canada is and can continue to do well coming out of Covid.
ESG investing is a huge trend for this year, and will be for this decade. Demographics are destiny. Millennials will be the economic driver these next 10yrs as they enter their prime earning years and they think with a green lens first. Carbon intensive industry will struggle.
Housing in Toronto and Vancouver has done well during Covid as high earners didn't lose jobs and interest rates have come down significantly. In fact this trend is being seen across a lot of developed economies as building approvals and mortgage applications have soared. Still lots of wealth to be made for primary residences.
It will be a tough decade for Alberta and specifically Calgary as it will lag the rest of the country for growth. Calgary's economy is approx 30% exposed directly to O&G and the Canadian dollar is rising in a tough price environment. That makes growth for the sector tough without pipeline externalities. There will be an O&G industry, just smaller, and they'll have to focus on profitability as well as work with reduced outside capital.
In summary don't expect help from the rest of the country in the coming years because they'll be doing well and won't want to change course...even Edmonton.