Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
A formula that takes the number of shot attempts and the level of danger per shot attempt to derive what the expected number of goals would be given historical results.
If you have a higher goal rate than expected you are either lucky, or have a better finish rate than the average player.
You'd expect to see highly talented players exceeding those numbers but the top 20 in that stat (GF - xGF / 60) has a few that you wouldn't expect too.
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Steve Valliquette breaks it down as well.
A breakaway goes in 1/3 shots a 2 on 1 goes in 1/4
shots. This helps to empirically assess how well players are executing chances.
A person may actually have 10 breakaway goals but if they have had 90 breakaways then expected goals empirically proves they are not good on breakaways.