[DiracSpike]

It's far from a sure thing that line 5 gets shut down. But if it does...things get pretty interesting quickly. There's two scenarios:

1: Ontario and Quebec can lean on the annoying reality that their geography affords them luxuries I'd kill for Alberta to have, namely waterway access and all the flexibility in importing/exporting that comes with it. Can shortfall in supply simply be made up by sourcing more american/middle eastern tankers to sail up the st lawrence and deliver crude? In that case not much changes for them but we lose 500,000bbl/d in capacity, and I doubt anyone in canada would give a ####. This would be the pessimistic scenario.

2: They can't efficiently source crude supplies, and the resulting reality of check of out of control gas prices and grounded flights in the part of Canada that actually matters, combined with a murdered KXL that's already ~5% of the way completed in the SE direction is a perfect opportunity to build the no-brainer project we should have been constructing all along.

Given everything that's happened in the last 12 years im more expecting scenario 1 to unfold.