Quote:
Originally Posted by TOfan
Thornton is a pretty poor comparable. Just because Mike O'Connell made one of the worst deals in modern hockey history 15 years ago shouldn't be indicative of what Jarmo Kekalinen will do. Frankly, I would put zero stock on that deal. It was a one off deal that landed the GM of the Bruins on the outside of the GM's circle permanently. GM's around the league tend to take note of that sort of thing.
Same goes with Seguin. Bottom line, Kekalinen is far too shrewd a GM to mishandle this.
as for 'massively overpay' what does that mean? I think you are pretending to know what the market is on the player, but you don't. Friedman said yesterday that already GM's are making serious offers. There doesn't sound like there is much beating around the bush here. This is a prime asset set to hit the market, if he hasn't already. Again, the price will be steep.
I'm not necessarily of the mind that the Flames should do the trades the morning guys were suggesting, but I don't think they are far off the asking price.
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"Are there even any comparables???"
"We can't use any of these comparables!!!"
Common dude. Kekalainen has made his fair share of errors as well, stop deifying him. The only reasonable way to look at this is using comparable players.
The seguin, duchene, and Johansen trades are the only way we will be able to project something like this, and you can bet that GMs league wide are using these to gauge value. It's not like CLB is holding all the cards here; they're not being forced to move him so are not powerless, but they are not playing from a position of absolute power like you're making it seem.
Let's use Duchene (from Colorado to Ottawa as it is more comparable age/draft position wise). It is complicated as a three way trade:
Nashville sends: Vlad Kamenev (42 OA in 2014), Sam Girard (47 OA in 2016), 2nd 2018
Ottawa Sends: Kyle Turris, Andrew Hammond, 1st 2018, 3rd 2019, Shane Bowers (28th OA 2017.)
Colorado Sends: Duchene
Now, we can break this down a few ways, but I prefer to see it as one of the following two:
Duchene = the value presented in the ottawa trade or Duchene = the sum value of all pieces moved less Turris.
In scenario 1, the comparable trade would be: Backlund+Rittich+1st 2021+ 3rd 2022+Zary
In scenario 2, the comparable trade would be: Rittich+1st 2021+3rd 2022+ Zary + Ruzicka + Kylington (or Mackey, or Kuznetsov)
There might be a small argument that scenario 1 could be seen as Monahan instead of Backlund. I counter that Turris had never reached the level of Monahan prior to (or since) this trade, and was older than Monahan at the time of the trade. I would be willing to use Monahan in the same value rubric but it would require the removal of zary. So Monahan+Rittich+2021 1st + 3rd 2022. I still think that's an overpay but I can see the argument. I cannot justify even a penny more.
This trade has been presented as a master stroke by Sakic. What is being proposed as value by the morning team would be far, far beyond this. It would make us look extremely foolish.