Quote:
Originally Posted by octothorp
I think the only way there will be an actual split is if Trump (or a Trump-endorsed candidate) narrowly loses the 2024 primary, at which point starting their own party is a definite possibility. Republicans will ultimately fall in line with power, and if 2022 shows them that Trump-brand politics are enough to win back the house, then that's all they need to see. But the 2022 primary season might be really vicious.
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Unless Trump's popularity really slides, it's completely irrelevant. If the "respectable Republicans" decide to start their own party it would be as relevant as leprechauns starting their own. In the world of US politics all incentives are for only two parties, and the structural powers on the right are all bent to Trump (media ecosystem, donors, political foundation).
The only way this ends is if there's ever a crack in the veneer and actual idiot honkeytonks stop selling their soul to him. Full stop. Until then it really doesn't matter what happens within the republican party