The MDF they use for baseboards is really sensitive to moisture. It will expand and contract up to 1/8" in 8'-0". So, if it was installed with a really tight fit as sa226 mentioned, then you could get some buckling or gaps depending on the time of year and the humidity levels in the house. One sure sign of water damage is the MDF will expand. So if you have some swelling of the baseboard, then it is likely water damage. If it is just cracked or buckled without any expansion of the MDF, then it probably isn't caused by moisture.
The fix is fairly easy if it is just buckled. Take the baseboard off, and cut about 1/16" off one end and re-fit it. The trick is to re-install it without having to force it into place. If you have a gap at one end or the other, simply use some white wood filler and touch it up with paint.
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