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Originally Posted by rubecube
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Yeah if you actually read the article you can see my point.
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In all but three states, the Democratic Senate candidate’s vote share was within 5 percentage points of Biden’s.
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So I maybe should not have said “tons”, but the difference between Biden and the senate candidates in certain states exceeded the margin of defeat, which means that even if it’s true in absolute terms that only a small proportion of voters split their ticket, those voters were actually decisive in a number of key states where the difference between Biden and the Democratic candidate for Senate exceeded the vote difference between Biden and Trump.
We know this happened because it showed up in traditionally Republican areas like parts of suburban Atlanta. So yeah. Ticket splitting mattered a lot here, and I don’t think 538 is saying it didn’t.