[troutman]

https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/nfl/...k1jt3kyf2mx5q6

Across the 2018 and 2019 NFL seasons, teams converted two-point conversion attempts 49.4 percent of the time. That compares to making the one-point point after kick 94.1 percent of the time.

Those numbers can be used to have a point expectation per conversion attempt, which some call "Expected Points Added." Since two-point conversions are worth, yes, two points, converting them at a 49.4 percent rate means you can expect to score an average of 0.988 points per two-point try.

At a 94.1 percent extra point rate, PATs come with an expected points added of 0.941. That means two-point conversions, on average, can be expected to bring slightly more scoring in the long run than extra points at the 2018-19 conversion rates.

There are classic situations when teams go for two. If you're down 16 and score a touchdown late, you go for two to get within eight, for example. Most people can do the math on the eight-point increments to figure out when that type of two-point conversion helps. But teams don't go for two enough, according to FiveThirtyEight and a number of other mathematical breakdowns.

FiveThirtyEight came up with 11 post-TD margins that teams should go for two during, with 10 minutes left in the game: Down 15, down 13, down 11, down 10, down eight, down five, down four, down two, up one, up five and up 12.