Quote:
Originally Posted by Textcritic
I think that's debatable. Backlund was on his way to a career year before the stoppage; I see no reason why he won't be just as good for at least one more season
Explain. Why "should" Backlund be playing on the third line in 2021?
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Statically speaking player decline after the age of 30. Naturally there are exceptions to this, nevertheless, it is always more likely that a player will be worse at 32 than they will be at 30. By the time Backlund would be hypothetically exposed he would be 32 years old. This is not an indictment of his play last season, or potential play this season, it is simply forecasting the trajectory of a players career and managing assets based on relevant information.
Firstly, the season after next season, Seattles first season, is 2022. Maybe I am crazy but I think the Flames would be in trouble if they had r a 32 center playing top 6 minutes. Last season there were 5 centers 32 or older who registered more than 40 points ( Evgeni Malkin, Patrice Bergeron, . Eric Staal, David Krejci, and Ryan Getzlaf) . Pretty well all of those players are on track to be 1st ballot hall of famers. Backlund would be beating the odds to perform anywhere near where he did last season two years in the future.
Besides I think that if he was exposed he wouldn't even get picked because Seattle wont be looking for 32 year old players under contract for two more years to make their bottom six cap structure bloated.