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Old 11-10-2020, 09:43 PM   #5853
nfotiu
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Join Date: May 2002
Location: Virginia
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Quote:
Originally Posted by #-3 View Post
2020 not everyone is seated, so it's still hard to say.

vote share vs seat share seats for Dems
2018 +1 (big anti-trump enthusiasm anomaly)
2016 -11
2014 -17
2012 -19
2010 -9 (the year of the great gerrymander)
2008 +15 (GWB low approval anomaly)
2006 -3
2004 -9
2002 -2
2000 -3
1998 -4

Basically on average the Dems lose 6 seats per election due to gerrymander. The only to instances it came out in their favour you need a complete trainwreck of a republican presidency.

That said, I was somewhat to surprised to find no instances where the balance of power was tipped by seat distribution vs popular vote.
That doesn't prove Gerrymandering. You can only Gerrymander within your state. A lot of that discrepancy is the same issue as the EC and Senate. The small, rural states get disproportionate amount of seats.
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