Quote:
Originally Posted by #-3
2020 not everyone is seated, so it's still hard to say.
vote share vs seat share seats for Dems
2018 +1 (big anti-trump enthusiasm anomaly)
2016 -11
2014 -17
2012 -19
2010 -9 (the year of the great gerrymander)
2008 +15 (GWB low approval anomaly)
2006 -3
2004 -9
2002 -2
2000 -3
1998 -4
Basically on average the Dems lose 6 seats per election due to gerrymander. The only to instances it came out in their favour you need a complete trainwreck of a republican presidency.
That said, I was somewhat to surprised to find no instances where the balance of power was tipped by seat distribution vs popular vote.
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That doesn't prove Gerrymandering. You can only Gerrymander within your state. A lot of that discrepancy is the same issue as the EC and Senate. The small, rural states get disproportionate amount of seats.