So now we are beginning to get a better sense of how this is shaping up. There is obviously still some uncertainty and a couple of uncalled races but it appears Joe Biden will win 306 EVs, and will win Georgia and Arizona while losing North Carolina and Florida. He also lost the 2nd district of Maine.
I had him at 307–which isn’t bad. My only “miss” was ME-2, assuming we don’t get any further lead changes.
But before I congratulate myself too hard on that I also guessed Biden would come closer in Texas than he ultimately did. Looks like that state has a ways to go before truly turning “purple.” I also did not think Wisconsin would be as close as it was—that is the state where the polling was most clearly “off”. That’s troubling in part because that was also the case in 2016, which suggests whatever ailed the polls 4 years ago may not have been weighting by education after all.
National polls were... not as bad. Probably off by slightly more than they were in 2016 but when the votes are all tallied (which is going to take a while..) Biden likely wins the popular vote by close to 5%. Polls in the sunbelt, taking the average, did much better than in the rust belt again, with the exception of Florida where they were once again off.
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