Quote:
Originally Posted by Minnie
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Thanks.
So basically we are looking at maybe 108,000 votes still out there if every one gets counted, but only 51K that are
sure to be counted. Some percentage of the provisionals will be rejected. Some percentage (maybe significant — I have no idea) of the rejected votes will not be successfully cured.
So we are likely looking at a universe of outstanding votes that is much lower than 120,000, maybe as low as 90-95,000 and we have no idea how provisionals will skew. In a normal election provisional votes tend to be more democratic—but this isn’t a normal election so.... who knows? But that is why I used the 100K number and interestingly it yields a hurdle rate for Trump that is
extremely close to his current batch average and maybe just a hair higher.
If Biden gets a relatively good batch from Maricopa today this is likely over—if it is once again around 58% Trump we will just have to keep waiting I guess.