Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
I've been using the NYT github site for a few days to track because it's all in one place. I think the key number is votes remaining, because my site says 120k and you're saying fewer than 100k. If my source is right, he only needs 57% of remaining votes and has been getting between 58-60 the past few batches. If you're right about the number of votes left, he's on track to fall a bit short, if mine is, he just barely gets over the line.
Outstanding vote count has been the hardest thing to get certainty on throughout this whole process. By all accounts Georgia should have run out of votes long ago.
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I think the 120k number is correct but includes rejected but “curable” ballots. I’m looking at this guy:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_A...87539037491201 (does that even work...? I’m a mod and don’t know how to link to twitter.
)
Apparently once you remove the “rejected” ballots from the total (on the theory most of those won’t be counted though undoubtedly some will be... who knows) then the remaining ballots are 51,000 regular ballots and 45,000 or so provisionals.
That math is more daunting for Trump though far from impossible given he has been over 60% in some batches. But if we assume provisionals fall along the lines of existing votes in the county they are from (I.E. they don’t skew Trump) the math is even more difficult for him.
A lot of unknowns at this point—other than it will be very, very, close. Today’s Maricopa dump at 4 PM may add some clarity—we shall see.