Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan
That’s true but the “blocks” have not all been of equal size. Based on how quickly the lead is evaporating I think he is doing much better than 56.7 among newly counted votes on average.
I think (but don’t know) that some of these votes are from rural Trump leaning counties that counted all of their E-Day vote on Tuesday. That’s partly based on Dave Wassermann tweeting about updated totals from across the state today.
Lead is down to 97,200. Was 265,000 a day ago.
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And 700,000 a day before that.
But I'm saying that the breakdown of vote totals from yesterday is meaningless. The question is what the vote breakdown is in counties being counted right now. I think if there really are 85,000 plus Philadelphia ballots still out there, he should take the lead, but I really don't buy the 100-200k lead by the time they're done. I'm no expert though, it just doesn't seem like it's going to trend that way. The 75% biden votes are not dominating the way they were before and there are a lot more smaller - but still substantial - ~60% blocks coming in. That is becoming more and more the case over the course of the day.
If I were to guess, I would think he gets about 65% of the remaining mail-in vote, and he needs 60%, so that's enough. Just not enough to avoid recounts and snafus.