Quote:
Originally Posted by Red
But since they are mailed in, doesnt that suggest they are ~75% Biden?
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Not necessarily. It probably means he will outperform the election day voting in those counties in those votes, but when you're in a Trump +60% county, it stands to reason that it's still going to be pro-trump vote, even if it's +40 or +30 instead.
The point is, for every area in which Biden is running up the score and catching up, there appears to be another county where he will not do that, and that would lower his overall average in the outstanding mail-in ballots such that he doesn't ultimately catch up.
I am not an expert like Nate Cohn, but the numbers just in the chart really clash from things that are being said by him and Silver. For Silver to not even acknowledge how many of those outstanding mail in ballots are in Trump-dominated counties when he says "he's been winning the mail in ballots by 40 points" strikes me as quite misleading.