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Originally Posted by 3thirty
Is the Arizona swing likely due to the massive amounts of Californians that have moved in recent years or an actual change of heart?
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A little bit of that. There's a lot of migration from everywhere including a lot of states from the east and mid-west that are traditionally Democrat. Illinois has seen a lot of people migrate to Arizona for example. Same with Wisconsin. You also have to take into consideration the change in demographics. Arizona is getting more brown, and the older white population is dying off. All of these things add up.