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Originally Posted by New Era
So good news bad news stuff. I just finished running a model based on available data from NBC, which appears to be consistent across other media sources, and the math looks like this.
Biden will take Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Trump will hold onto his leads in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina. There doesn't appear to be enough votes out there for Biden to catch up. Of course, these are based on statistical trends, so if a box of ballots that run way outside that trend happen to be found, that could skew the numbers. But having said all of that, it looks like Joe Biden will win 270-268, which means this is going to the courts and Donald Trump will continue as the 45th president of the United States of America.
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Pennsylvania is a big one to look out for. There is about a ~500,000 difference between Biden & Trump. There are approx. 1.5 million outstanding ballots.
From early voting numbers, numbers are coming back at 78% Biden (source from ABC news). If that's the case, 3,034,722 for Trump becomes 3,364,722 for Trump, and 2,522,086 for Biden becomes 3,692,086. That could end up 47.7% Trump, 52.3% Biden.
Maybe 78% is too high to shoot for, but it could be that there more than 1.5 million votes to be counted. Anyway, Pennsylvania is still in the game for Biden.