[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

Say what you want about Bernie, but he absolutely nailed this (interview was from last week)

Ahem.

https://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpo...postcount=8307

Spoiler!

Originally Posted by Corsihockeyleague

I see two potential scenarios.

First, on election night, Trump is leading in vote count in enough states to get him to 270, but analysts for the non-Fox news channels rely on sound analytical models of what the makeup of the outstanding mail-in ballots are likely to be once they're all counted, and declare Biden the winner of the election despite him trailing in most states in terms of votes actually counted up to that point. This could result in Trump declaring victory and accusing the media of lying and trying to steal the election, and in turn trying to throw out any remaining mail in ballots on the basis that they shouldn't count after election day.

Second, those news channels are more conservative in their projections, and simply note that all of the states in which significant mail-in ballots are outstanding and where Trump is leading but could realistically be overtaken once the mail-in ballots are counted are "too early to call". Again, if this happens, Trump could declare victory on the basis that, as he has said previously, "whoever gets the most votes on election day should be the winner", and tries to stop any further counting of ballots.

I do not see any realistic third scenario. Those are the only two likely outcomes, it seems to me, and they both lead to Trump and company doing the same sorts of things. The key point is that on election day, it is highly unlikely that enough Biden votes will have been counted for it to be clear that he has the election won.

I WAS RIDICULED

... Although the funnier part was when I made my projections based on a 2% polling error in favour of Biden and was accused of being ridiculous for having so little faith in the pollsters' assumptions, when it turns out I generally had far too much faith.