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Old 11-03-2020, 09:52 PM   #1187
Slava
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Calgary, Alberta
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fleury View Post
For those in the know, what are the likely outcomes for the following scenarios tomorrow?
Trump wins by a small amount
Biden wins by a small amount
Tie


How do we see the markets reacting to the tentative information in the morning?
Well the tie would be the worst from a market perspective. A decisive win would have been best, but an uncontested win would be a good outcome, purely to avoid uncertainty. Futures are way higher right now, but the issue with futures is that they’re terrible for predicting the future!

I think a small Biden win would be good because everyone expects a significant stimulus package to come through in that case. A Trump win probably wouldn’t be a bad thing either because the market has done well under him for the most part (historically it performs better under democrats though).
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