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Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
It looks almost exactly like Ohio did - big win for Biden in the early / absentee vote that came in first, and the lead started shrinking as in-person votes were counted. Now, Ohio and Arizona have almost nothing in common, so maybe the lead will shrink slower and Trump won't be able to catch up. But it's too early to be getting too optimistic.
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There is one pretty important difference in that so much of the population of Arizona is in Maricopa county. The fact that Biden leads there by 10 with 70% of precincts reporting is huge—Trump won Maricopa county by 3% in 2016. Even if that lead shrinks a bit it’s hard to fathom Trump coming anywhere close to his 2016 levels. And there should be less of a “mail in vote” mirage in Arizona because it’s a red state where most voters have been voting by mail for years and years.
Biden will also need to win Pima county and those results are only starting to trickle in (at least where I’m looking). If he wins Pima and Maricopa there probably aren’t enough votes left in the rural counties for Trump to mount a comeback.