Nate Silver: NOV. 3, 9:22 PM
Again, I just think it’s really tricky to get an overall sense of the state of things across the country. Florida is likely to go for Trump. Beyond that, the big shift to early and mail voting makes it hard to calibrate models and expectations and hard to know what to think. My best guess is that the polling error in Florida may not be as large elsewhere in the country, especially since it seems to have been concentrated among Cuban voters, a group not present in big numbers elsewhere. But it’s hard to know. It feels like we’re waiting for the next big domino to fall ever since we heard that Trump got those good results in Miami-Dade.
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