Quote:
Originally Posted by New Era
What stats you seeing? The only thing I've seen is from the Florida GOP, and they have it as a small lead on party affiliation. They are also basing their numbers on a 109% voter turnout by Republicans, and only a 101% turnout by Democrats. So they are counting on an eight percent over-performance to achieve their numbers. They also are not mentioning the break of independents and what they looks like. The independents will settle Florida, as usual, it just depends on the break. If the early vote is consistent with what they report, the election is won in the independent mail-in.
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It was just Nate Silver on twitter talking about what they think the GOP turnout needs to be for Biden to win or Trump to win, but the way he's wording it makes it seem like he believes he's wrong. He originally estimated that it needed to be +3.5% R for Trump to win, or else Biden would be favoured. He's saying it appears like it will end up +2 for R which you would think would be a good thing for Biden. That's how I would have taken it, but reading the replies, it's just people arguing about what is actually being said.