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Old 11-03-2020, 10:15 AM   #114
united
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Updated to show some interesting market movement. Biden's win probability has increased but the market sees the Electoral Vote spread getting tighter as Biden is widening his lead in states that were leans previously, while toss-ups are shifting slightly to Trump. Of course, the closer you get to the result the tighter the variance is so not unexpected.

Also added Georgia and Pennsylvania as they have tightened over night to under -200.

Quote:
Originally Posted by united View Post
Here's where the betting markets are at at the sharpest book in the World, Pinnacle, vigorish removed:

Presidency
Trump +180 (~35%) \/ +197 (33%) / Biden -205 (~65%) /\ -225 (67%)

Biden over/under 310.5 Electoral votes
Over +110 (~46%) \/ +127 (41%) / Under -129 (~54%) /\ -170 (59%)

Popular vote
Trump +631 (~13%) /\ +590 (14%) / Biden -917 (~87%) \/ -800 (86%)

Arizona
Trump +116 (~44%) /\ -106 (49%) / Biden -141 (~56%) \/ -114 (51%)

Florida
Trump -148 (~57%) /\ -171 (60%) / Biden +122 (~43%) \/ +140 (40%)

Georgia
Trump -161 (62%) / Biden +132 (41%)

North Carolina
Trump -122 (~52.5%) /\ -127 (53%) / Biden +101 (~47.5%) \/ +105 (47%)

Pennsylvania
Trump +148 (38%) / Biden -181 (62%)
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