Quote:
Originally Posted by FunkMasterFlame
I don't think its particularly stupid to urge caution against putting 100% faith into polls when they burned you so hard in 2016.
But hey, thanks for the passive-aggressive insult. Reminds me why I don't come into this thread very often.
|
Polls were within their average margin of error last year. The Princeton guy saying 99.7% chance of victory forgetting that polls correlate was the problem. 538 had it around 75/25 on election day. Flip a coin, 2 land heads. If you were burned by polls last time that’s on the interpreter.
3% chance of Trump winning the popular vote with a fat tailed model that overstates unlikely events. It would take a 1980 sized polling error for that to occur.
That’s a lot different question then will Trump win the electoral college which would only take a 5% or so polling error which more than average is within the rea of possibility.