Quote:
Originally Posted by New Era
Just a reminder to all those out there, the 2017 election was decided on 77,000 votes across Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. 77,000 votes across those three states. All of those states are trending to Biden will outside the margin of error, even if you double the margin of error to take into consideration the "silent Trump voter." This is a very different election than 2016. Stop trying to equate the two. They aren't a repeat.
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Wisconsin and Michigan look fairly secure, but I don't think it's safe to assume that Pennsylvania is all that different than 2016. Fivethirtyeight had Clinton up 3.7 points while they have Biden up 4.9. RealClearPolitics had Clinton up 1.9 while they have Biden up 2.9. Trump outperformed the poll aggregators by 3.5-4.5 points.
Biden is definitely in a more comfortable position than Clinton. But if he does lose Pennsylvania, he's going to be in a tough spot even with Michigan and Wisconsin going blue again.