Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
So, I just did that with the following simple method. I took the RealClearPolitics polling average for each state, and assumed that it was off by 2% in Biden's favour.
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This isn't aimed at you Corsi, but I really hate this narrative. Most pollsters are very careful to model their data so as to be respectful of the populations they are to represent. We are going on the basis that all pollsters are wrong, and the ones who admittedly over sample Republican voters, are the ones who are accurate in their assessment, just because of 2016. We seem to miss that these pollsters killed it in 2018 and have modified their models to account for the "shy voter," which is another misnomer. I think there are more shy voters who will go for Biden because they don't want to deal with the BS they would put up with from their Trumpster friends when they find out they voted against the dear leader. So I think this giving a benefit to Trump because of the 2016 is just doubling down on the model modification already done, and is skewing the projection.
There is just too much data to support the bias within the early vote, and the fact that it is up to 95,365,308 votes already cast, the potential for the red crush of election day voting is going to be marginalized and all but eliminated. Even if the election day vote breaks 70/30 in favor of trump, there aren't enough votes in the system to save him, if the data scientists are right in their projections. Biden will already have established a lead that is so insurmountable that Trump would have to see a record turnout of 160 million people to close the gap, believing that the election day vote breaks 70/30 Trump. With that in mind, I think this has potential to be a blowout. 353, 185 with a couple really big surprises in the mix.