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Old 11-02-2020, 08:59 AM   #1
octothorp
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Default 2020 US Election Prediction Thread

Here's the place to post your predictions for the 2020 US Election. Please keep your predictions to a single post. You can edit your post any time you like before 4pm MT on Tuesday.

Other discussions about predictions are welcome in this thread, but try to keep general discussion related to the election here, or in a GDT if there is one.

The big question:
How many electoral votes will each candidate win (overall, not necessarily called on election night)

A couple tools you can use to calculate this are: 270towin.com and fivethirtyeight.com Note that the 538 one is a little odd because it's giving you average outcomes based on the states you select, so may give you actual vote numbers that are impossible.

Recent polls are here:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ident-general/

Bonus questions:
Which party controls the House?

which party wins each of these senate races:
Colorado
Michigan
Maine**
North Carolina
Arizona
Iowa
Alabama
South Carolina
Montana
Kansas
Georgia*
Goergia (special)*

*These elections will go to a runoff in January if no candidate has 50%.
**This election will go to an instant ranked-choice vote runoff later in the week if no candidate has 50%.

Extra Bonus Questions:
What will be the biggest surprise of election night?
When (day/hour) will the election winner first be declared by major news networks?

Feel free to make any other predictions that you want to make for the sake of posterity!

Last edited by octothorp; 11-02-2020 at 09:04 AM.
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