It’s an interesting tool because it adjusts the remaining states based on your picks.
I did this another way, and the results were interesting: I started by giving Nevada to Biden, because Nevada elections guru Jon Ralston says Nevada is done due to early vote and a huge Clark County “firewall” that he thinks cannot be erased on E-Day. Then I gave NE-2 to Biden, and that’s based on Cook Political Report’s Dave Wassermann who says Trump is not competitive there based on private unreleased surveys (public ones have showed a tight race with Biden slightly ahead).
Based on those two calls alone, Biden’s EV total goes up to the 370s and his win chance to over 99%. 538 thinks that if he wins those two he stands a pretty good chance of an upper Midwest sweep and also winning NC and Georgia.
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