Quote:
Originally Posted by kn
The Trafalgar Group is predicting a Trump victory. They are getting flack from other pollsters like Nate Silver on their methodology but the Trafalgar Group also predicted a Trump victory in 2016 in the face of similar criticism. They use a different methodology that factors in a "Social Desirability Bias" which is essentially the belief that people lie to pollsters. I can see people not wanting to reveal that they are voting for Trump.
Anyway, I don't know enough about polling to comment but I thought it was an interesting perspective and different than the Biden landslide that most people are predicting:
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Nate Silver gave Trump a 30% chance in 2016 and his data was well within the margin of error. He also nailed 2018
All those hillbillies in the south called Trump in 2016...are they great statisticians? They call the republican every time and are sometimes correct. Stories like this a good though so voters aren't complacent.