Quote:
Originally Posted by kn
The Trafalgar Group is predicting a Trump victory. They are getting flack from other pollsters like Nate Silver on their methodology but the Trafalgar Group also predicted a Trump victory in 2016 in the face of similar criticism. They use a different methodology that factors in a "Social Desirability Bias" which is essentially the belief that people lie to pollsters. I can see people not wanting to reveal that they are voting for Trump.
Anyway, I don't know enough about polling to comment but I thought it was an interesting perspective and different than the Biden landslide that most people are predicting:
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They predicted that Kemp would win Georgia by 12 points in 2018. After a furious voter suppression by Kemp as Secretary of State, he won by 1.4 percent. Trafalgar has virtually no credibility as a pollster.
The best part about their polls is that they do IVR polling (press 1 for Trump, press 2 for Biden) and not live calls. They somehow think that people would not be comfortable pressing 1, instead they press 2. They then readjust some of the 2's and turn them into 1's. Crazy stuff.