Quote:
Originally Posted by octothorp
The thing not included in those numbers are that they are highly correlated to one another, making the chances higher. A scenario where Democrats takes the senate probably means Democrats do well in Arizona / Michigan / North Carolina, and if Democrats do well in those states then the odds of a Biden win is much higher than 89%.
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Agreed. If Dems wins the senate then they win all imo.
These huge turnouts for early voting really make me wonder what the election holds. My gut says these huge numbers of voting are people who are normally ambivalent about politics who are fed up with trump and voting for the first time. I feel like the polls are most likely to be wrong in the dems direction than in trumps, but that’s just human nature not wanting to make the same mistake twice.
But I’m not in USA so I could be totally wrong, it could be the other way around And magas will come out in force on Tuesday.