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Lanny_McDonald · 11-01-2020, 12:49 PM

Some interesting data about the swing states and the advanced voting verses the actual voting from 2016.

We must recognize that voter turnout is never equal to total registrations and is usually in the 60% range. Some are estimating that could rise to 62% and a record turnout of close to 150 million voters.

2020 Voter registrations:

Arizona - 3,262,000
Florida - 9,435,000
Georgia - 4,840,000
Iowa - 1,658,000
Michigan - 5,453,000
Nevada - 1,277,000
North Carolina - 5,160,000
Ohio- 6,062,000
Pennsylvania - 6,469,000
Texas - 11,634,000
Wisconsin - 3,129,000

Arizona - Total votes cast in 2016: 2,573,165, Early votes in 2020: 2,302,756 (89.5% of 2016 vote)
Florida - Total votes cast in 2016: 9,420,039, Early votes in 2020: 8,700,645 (92.4% of 2016 vote)
Georgia - Total votes cast in 2016: 4,114,732, Early votes in 2020: 3,903,356 (94.9% of 2016 vote)
Iowa - Total votes cast in 2016: 1,566,031, Early votes in 2020: 924,533 (59.0% of 2016 vote)
Michigan - Total votes cast in 2016: 4,799,284, Early votes in 2020: 2,571,492 (53.6% of 2016 vote)
Nevada - Total votes cast in 2016: 1,125,385, Early votes in 2020: 1,026,318 (91.2% of 2016 vote)
North Carolina - Total votes cast in 2016: 4,741,564, Early votes in 2020: 4,531,619 (95.6% of 2016 vote)
Ohio- Total votes cast in 2016: 5,496,487, Early votes in 2020: 2,854,258 (51.9% of 2016 vote)
Pennsylvania - Total votes cast in 2016: 6,165,478, Early votes in 2020: 2,370,510 (38.4% of 2016 vote)
Texas - Total votes cast in 2016: 8,969,226, Early votes in 2020: 9,677,963 (107.9% of 2016 vote)
Wisconsin - Total votes cast in 2016: 2,976,150, Early votes in 2020: 1,873,403 (62.9% of 2016 vote)

There are still 32,084,041 outstanding mail-in ballots.

Data scientists believe the vote is breaking 66/32 Biden for early voting. The are predicting that the election day vote will break 69/27 Trump, but have over sampled their projection to represent the expected red surge on election day.

Election day is going to be interesting. If it does break as suggested, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Texas may already be decided. That leaves Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as the states left to watch. There aren't enough votes in the other states to make a dent in the lead built up. If that is indeed the case, the math tells you the story.

11-01-2020, 12:49 PM	#8619
Lanny_McDonald Franchise Player Join Date: Mar 2013 Exp:	Some interesting data about the swing states and the advanced voting verses the actual voting from 2016. We must recognize that voter turnout is never equal to total registrations and is usually in the 60% range. Some are estimating that could rise to 62% and a record turnout of close to 150 million voters. 2020 Voter registrations: Arizona - 3,262,000 Florida - 9,435,000 Georgia - 4,840,000 Iowa - 1,658,000 Michigan - 5,453,000 Nevada - 1,277,000 North Carolina - 5,160,000 Ohio- 6,062,000 Pennsylvania - 6,469,000 Texas - 11,634,000 Wisconsin - 3,129,000 Arizona - Total votes cast in 2016: 2,573,165, Early votes in 2020: 2,302,756 (89.5% of 2016 vote) Florida - Total votes cast in 2016: 9,420,039, Early votes in 2020: 8,700,645 (92.4% of 2016 vote) Georgia - Total votes cast in 2016: 4,114,732, Early votes in 2020: 3,903,356 (94.9% of 2016 vote) Iowa - Total votes cast in 2016: 1,566,031, Early votes in 2020: 924,533 (59.0% of 2016 vote) Michigan - Total votes cast in 2016: 4,799,284, Early votes in 2020: 2,571,492 (53.6% of 2016 vote) Nevada - Total votes cast in 2016: 1,125,385, Early votes in 2020: 1,026,318 (91.2% of 2016 vote) North Carolina - Total votes cast in 2016: 4,741,564, Early votes in 2020: 4,531,619 (95.6% of 2016 vote) Ohio- Total votes cast in 2016: 5,496,487, Early votes in 2020: 2,854,258 (51.9% of 2016 vote) Pennsylvania - Total votes cast in 2016: 6,165,478, Early votes in 2020: 2,370,510 (38.4% of 2016 vote) Texas - Total votes cast in 2016: 8,969,226, Early votes in 2020: 9,677,963 (107.9% of 2016 vote) Wisconsin - Total votes cast in 2016: 2,976,150, Early votes in 2020: 1,873,403 (62.9% of 2016 vote) There are still 32,084,041 outstanding mail-in ballots. Data scientists believe the vote is breaking 66/32 Biden for early voting. The are predicting that the election day vote will break 69/27 Trump, but have over sampled their projection to represent the expected red surge on election day. Election day is going to be interesting. If it does break as suggested, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Texas may already be decided. That leaves Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as the states left to watch. There aren't enough votes in the other states to make a dent in the lead built up. If that is indeed the case, the math tells you the story.