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Old 11-01-2020, 09:47 AM   #144
Enoch Root
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Join Date: May 2012
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Comparing the last 5 years is fine, it is what it is. But leaving it at that is ridiculous.

Wheeler is 34, Gaudreau is 27. What do you think the NEXT 5 years are going to look like? And, while I am not a GM, I am fairly sure that one can't acquire the last 5 years' production, only the next 5.

So let's look at the next 4 years (the length of Wheeler's contract). What do you think Wheeler will produce over that period (being his 34 thru 37 YO seasons)?

And what do you think Gaudreau will produce (being in his prime over that period)?

Wheeler will cost $33M over those 4 years.

Gaudreau will cost $13.5M for the 1st 2, so he will need to get bumped to $9.5M per year, in order to cost as much as Wheeler. The only way Gaudreau is getting $9.5Mpy is if he goes back to scoring 90+ pts per year. And if he does that, he is obviously way more valuable than Wheeler.

The only argument you can make to compare Wheeler's value favourably to Gaudreau's, is to assume that Gaudreau is basically done as a player. And even if you do that, he's STILL more valuable than Wheeler because he will be way cheaper (because Wheeler will also have no value in a couple years)
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