Quote:
Originally Posted by Leondros
The issue is everyone is thinking the same thing - why invest right now. 2020 alone has lost $400B (20% of total) in investment in oil and gas activities. Since 2014 we have seen increased drops in investment and eventually this will catch up with the industry overall. When that happens, and natural declines start taking over there will be a supply issue. Even on a flat demand case (which I believe to be impossible) we need more capital which we are just not seeing. Prices will come back because of this supply constrain.
Not only that, but by 2030 its projected that the top 10 countries by GDP will be China, India, US, Indonesia, Turkey, Brazil, Egypt, Russia, Japan and Germany. Most of this growth will be done through fossil fuels despite what many may hope. China, India, and Indonesia will all have 3.3B of the 8.5B people in the world.
|
Everything you say is correct anecdotally speaking. However, do you think that a company like BP which is bigger than most countries in the world and whose business it is to supply energy to the world would not model this? There will be new global O&G investment to supply oil for the next 100 years. The question is...given the current global glut and associated curtailment...does Alberta Oil still give you the best return on investment if you have access to places in the world where you can stick a pipe in the ground and have free flow? I dont know the answer...but I am not as confident as I was 5 years ago that the answer is yes.