Quote:
Originally Posted by tkflames
Depends on who you believe.British Petroleum for one doesn't agree with you.
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/9...eaking-by-2030
Also, keep in mind that OPEC alone is curtailing 10M bpd.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnb...c-meeting.html
I am not saying Oil companies are going to shut down existing facilities...but in these conditions as a prudent investor with many global options, would you invest in a new large scale heavy oil extraction facility that will take a decade minimum to engineer, review and build with that forecast and global capacity? |
The issue is everyone is thinking the same thing - why invest right now. 2020 alone has lost $400B (20% of total) in investment in oil and gas activities. Since 2014 we have seen increased drops in investment and eventually this will catch up with the industry overall. When that happens, and natural declines start taking over there will be a supply issue. Even on a flat demand case (which I believe to be impossible) we need more capital which we are just not seeing. Prices will come back because of this supply constrain.
Not only that, but by 2030 its projected that the top 10 countries by GDP will be China, India, US, Indonesia, Turkey, Brazil, Egypt, Russia, Japan and Germany. Most of this growth will be done through fossil fuels despite what many may hope. China, India, and Indonesia will all have 3.3B of the 8.5B people in the world.