Quote:
Originally Posted by nfotiu
Somebody needs to convince me that the spikes in republican registration in the key states to a Trump victory like PA,AZ,NC,Fl are not a red flag that there is organized cheating going on. I know all the studies saying flat out cheating is rare in past elections, but I'm sure it could be done with some organization. If you could get a list with inactive voters and register in their name, you could get a mail in ballot or vote in states without voter id laws.
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I don't know that I can convince you, but I can at least offer a plausible explanation:
Registration tends to lag actual voting patterns. Let's say you've got some independents, or even some disaffected Democrats in 2016. They get interested in Trump, even excited, and they make the choice to vote for Trump. We know this happened. A lot. But these people are still registered as independents or Democrats when they vote. But they're now gradually listening to more right wing media. Republicans are using various tracking metrics to figure out who these people are, and target them with registration drives. But those changes don't come right away. It might take something like an upcoming election for people to actually get around to changing their registration. This results in the president's party gaining in terms of registrations, even if it's actually losing popularity in the polls.