Thank you for asking. I appreciate the request and will do my best to explain the situation as the information available dictates.
Based on the information available, no, Trumps ground game is pretty well non-existent. The ground game is usually reliant on infrastructure and people getting out to convert the swing or uncommitted voter. There is a marked difference between what the Biden and Trump campaigns are doing. Biden is all about traditional electioneering tactics of knocking on doors and talking to the people. Trump is all about the big rallies and hoping the media will cover them. Different tactics, but one that doesn't really reach undecideds, as those undecideds are unlikely to go to a big rally, especially in the time of COVID. Trump just doesn't have the infrastructure, and it is showing.
The Trump campaign is trying to put on a brave face, but they have pulled ads in Iowa, Ohio, and New Hampshire. Once that happens campaigns normally kill off the ground game as well, closing up offices and re-assigning key people. It only makes sense to pull them in NH, because they are getting beat up pretty badly. Ohio and Iowa are both coin toss races right now, but traditional red states, so unless they have internal polling showing a certain win, this is really push the envelope. These two are must win states and they have closed up shop, relying strictly on low cost and low impact web buys.
Trump has also pulled way back on ads in Nevada, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. The only race in these states that is close is Nevada, and not as close as Georgia and Texas, where the races are way too close for comfort. The reality is that Trump is out of money and no one is coming in to give him any more. The benefactors are putting money into races that look winnable or have strategic purpose. So Trump's ability to maintain a ground game is all but evaporated and they are really reliant on the web buys or using digital means to encourage his supporters to go have small "flag waving" rallies, which have been popular here in AZ.
One thing that is missing in AZ from the last election is the prevalence of yard signs, which is a great indicator of a ground game presence. Our area was flooded with Trump signs in 2016, and I would say we are at 30-40% of what they were. The number of Biden/Harris signs is almost equal, and we're in a very "Trumpy" area. So his ground game hasn't been very effective. Having said that, I'm getting pounded by web ads and flyers. Every second page I go to has a Trump or McSally (senate) add, and every day I get 8-10 pieces of election propaganda, so they (Trump and the Republicans) are pouring the money into the directed marketing.
The strategy seems to be throwing anything and everything at the wall in hopes of something sticking. Their "rally" campaigning does not convert hard to reach votes. They increase the enthusiasm of the already true believers, so the investment of this much time and energy is not about converting undecideds, its about the dear leader's ego and generating enthusiasm within the cult. In this current environment, people are not going to rallies unless they are already part of that social group.
He's using the inly script he has. It worked last time, so he's trying it again. Problem is, this is a different time and the attacks don't work against Biden. Trump is playing the greatest hits and hoping people don't recognize that his best days are behind him and the songs don't sound like they did on the album.
