Quote:
Originally Posted by Sidney Crosby's Hat
Given the higher turnout expected, I'm very curious how that's going to turn out. Some predict 150 million voters this time around (126 million last time). Trump had 62 million votes last time which I believe was the most any Republican president has ever had.
He can probably win the election with about 46% of the vote. Can he find 7 million more votes?
Or maybe more accurately, he had 2.9 million votes in Pennsylvania last time. Pennsylvania had 6.1 million voters. This time around, Pennsylvania has 9 million registered voters. Assuming 8 million of those vote, can Trump find another million voters in Pennsylvania?
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I’ve been thinking about this a bit too (though 2016 turnout was closer to 137 million). Another example is Texas, where turnout is huge right now and there are some (not super strong) indications that Biden is currently leading among people who have already voted. Beto O’Rourke famously said that Texas isn’t a “red state” it’s a “non-voting” state, because turnout among registered voters is typically so low. There are 17 million registered voters in Texas. If 12 or 14 million vote, are there enough rural Trump votes to counteract more Biden voters in urban/suburban areas?
Just to make that guessing game extra fun, El Paso is under lockdown due to a COVId surge and there is a Hurricane that is set to make landfall on the US gulf coast soon—two things that may lower turnout after it has been through the roof for the early voting period.