Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan
I guess what I’m saying is... we have 3 pictures of the race in Pennsylvania, which is undoubtedly the most important state in terms of the electoral college (Trump can’t win without it and Biden is worse than a coin flip to win if he doesn’t carry it). So is Biden ahead by low single digits such that he is a normal polling error from losing? Is he ahead by 8 such that he is basically guaranteed to carry the state and with it the White House? Or is he slightly behind/statistically tied in a state where a close count may result in legal challenges that find their way all the way to the US Supreme Court?
I think only one of these pictures can be right. I guess you toss them in the average but it seems to me someone will be embarrassed on November 4th. We just don’t know who.
|
1) I love your analysis and appreciate it. It's helpful in a time when I'm just running at a constant low hum of anxiety.
2) Living in probably the most important state for this election is exhausting and infuriating. So many ads all the time. I will note a few things, however anecdotal.
First off, while there are still some very proud Trump voters who come into my salon, they aren't nearly as loud as they were 4 years ago. The people who hate him are much more emboldened to speak up now, which has been nice to see. I'm curious how old white religious women vote, because I keep hearing a lot of handwringing from them about what a bully he is and what horrible things he says. The little old ladies seem to lean, at least somewhat, toward Biden from what I've seen. And the little old white ladies always vote.
This weekend I had to take a drive up north of the city, to a pretty comfortable 2016 Trump district. Just at a glance as I drove through, there were a surprising number of Biden signs. I don't think he'll win those counties, but if counties that Trump won at 70-80% drop to 55-60%...that would likely be enough to sway PA back to blue.
Mostly I'm just terrified knowing some of the idiots we're counting on to decide something this big for the entire country.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski
This is what concerned me. Is Trump rounding up traditional non voters (those that look like his base) and getting a big enough 'new' slice that confounds pollsters? Are they just doing this in select states?
To Iowa Fan's point - why aren't they voting early.
The concern is the GOP and what they have up their sleeves combined with the surprise of 2016.
|
I can't see Trump gaining voters from where his number was in 2016. The people who voted for him as a joke aren't going to do the same. There are plenty who voted for him because they didn't want a "politician" but they haven't found any difference in a Trump presidency, so they're disillusioned yet again and are unlikely to vote this time around.
I don't think too many people who didn't vote in 2016, or who voted for another candidate, are going to change over to vote for Trump. I think 2016 was his threshold.