I’m personally not a believer in the “shy Trump voter” phenomenon. There is some truth to the idea that less well educated and more rural types are less likely to answer polling phone calls but that only matters if they are not likely to vote similarly to people who are in similar demographic and geographical groups (such that this can be addressed through demographic weighting of the sample). Similar problems occur in the sub belt actually where polls can underestimate Democratic support by not reaching enough Latino/a voters.
With that said, yes—ground game matters. But the evidence right now is that the Democrats have a superior ground game, or perhaps a more motivated base (or both). If the ground game Stepien is touting is so great why aren’t more republicans turning out to vote early in person?
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