[Jeff Lebowski]

Originally Posted by New Era

We're at a point that we have to be very careful about the polls and really dig into them to understand how they have come up with their numbers. For example, I just reviewed the latest data that came out showing Trump and McSally leading in Arizona, which is contrary to the past few weeks of polling. So into the details of the poll I went and sure enough, the pollster over-sampled one population and under-sampled another. Polls have to reflect the actual makeup of the populations they trying to represent, and when you over-sample one population you taint your data. You need to normalize the data and this step was not done. After normalizing the data the results changed and was more reflective of the other polls. So be careful what polls you pick, look at the data, and determine if they are reflective of the communities they are trying to represent. This is why Nate Silver rates pollsters. Some do the actual work to normalize data while others intentionally over-sample certain populations and create inconsistent data. Rassmussen and Trafalgar are terrible for over-sampling so their numbers are questionable. Susquehanna have gone this direction this cycle as well.

Honestly asking for your opinion (since you know intimately how US elections work) on the points the Trump campaign are raising here.
Is there any truth to notion that the Trump ground game is better than Biden. Is Trump just flooding the zone with these types of stories to get his base out or is there something to the 'hard to reach voter' who isn't represented in the polls?

Please don't misunderstand - I'm not trying to pump Trump at all but I read this and wonder what he is up to

Trump campaign tells reporters they're confident the President will win battleground states
From CNN's Daniella Diaz, DJ Judd and Ryan Nobles

Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien, senior adviser Jason Miller and communications director Tim Murtaugh just held a press call with reporters where they said they are confident the President is growing his base and will be able to win battleground states on Election Day.

The campaign distanced themselves from the current poll numbers, with Stepien telling reporters: “Polls always mattered to some but they mattered less these days because more and more actual votes have been cast every single day.”

He later added: “Ground game matters — in state after state, we can see the result of President Trump's grassroots operation, which is simply the best that's ever been built. When we analyze the returns and the vote totals in these states, we continue to see positive trends every single day."

Stepian said the campaign "expected" that Democrats would take an early lead in the absentee voting period and believe that gap is being "eaten up."

"Early leads, built by Democrats in the absentee voting period, we know that, we've seen that, we expected that, it still drew a lot of attention by those who cover these races, but more importantly, every single day we see that early lead that the Democrats once had eaten up as they leave absentee votes on the table because they don't have a ground game to draw those votes and turn those ballots into actual votes.”
Stepien said that Trump "is expanding his base and turning out brand new voters."

Trump campaign senior adviser Jason Miller then joined the call, where he touted an additional $6 million in ads, in addition to the $55 million, two-week buy announced last week, “focused, largely on, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan,” adding, “We'll also be adding on to our buy in Minnesota.”